There have been numerous articles and even portions of books written to prove the idea that poker is a game of skill, wherein chance is vastly overtaken by the mathematical, psychological, and basic knowledge aspects of the game. At a time when so many court cases and potential state and federal laws depend on the result of the skill versus chance argument, Cigital released a study of Texas Hold’em hands that concludes, irrefutably, that skill is the predominant factor in determining the outcome of a poker game.

The study is entitled “Statistical Analysis of Texas Hold’Em” and dated March 4, though news of its data and results were not released to the public until March 25. Analysis was conducted and compiled by Cigital, Inc. and Rational Entertainment Enterprises Limited (REEL) through a series of 103 million hands of Texas hold’em played on the PokerStars online poker website.

Cigital reported that it conducted the study independently and “without predisposition towards the final outcome.” The company acquired the data from PokerStars through REEL and examined the log files that contain descriptions of the 103 million hands. The games included in the data were cash ring games played for real money, and all tables were set up for multiple players, though at times there were as few as two players at each table. The micro-limit games were consisted of 10-cent, 25-cent, and 50-cent blinds, and all hands were played between December 1, 2008, and January 2, 2009. All player names were changed in the results report to protect player information.

The summary of the findings was that 24.3 percent of the hands resulted in a showdown, and 50.3 percent of those were won by players with the best 5-card hand. In essence, many of the games and hands - an overall majority, in fact - were won by skills that were independent of the value of the cards. Only 12 percent of the hands won involved players who made the best hand early and took it all the way to the showdown to win.

In conclusion, Cigital determined through the examination of a multitude of data that the outcomes of Texas hold’em games are significantly determined by the decisions of the players rather than the value of their cards.

The authors of the study included Paco Hope, Cigital Technical Manager; Brian Mizelle, Cigital Managing Principal; and Sean McCulloch, Ph.D. and Associate Professor of Ohio Wesleyan University. All are willing to discuss the outcome of the study on a Friday, March 27 conference call with interested parties.

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